Money · Yen carry

Yen carry

Is yen funding still easy, or is the rate backdrop tightening?

Yen carry stress gauge

MHL-derived composite · not an official index · as of 2026-09-15

0 100

34 / 100

Elevated

Low confidence — funding & positioning legs not yet wired.

How this is scored

A derived stress tell from the USD/JPY close and the carry spread on this page — yen strength, volatility, rally speed, and carry compensation, anchored to long-run history. It is not an official index. Missing data is never invented — it falls back or fails closed.

Live · USD/JPY

USD/JPY — JPY=X

154.81 JPY +1.39 vs prior

Yahoo Finance chart · as of 2026-09-15.

Unavailable — data unavailable

Data is not live for this board (yen_carry_page).

How to read this board

Yen carry is borrowing in cheap yen to earn higher yields elsewhere. Watch USD/JPY (is the yen still weak?), the US curve (destination yields), and the US−Japan gap (more gap → more room for the trade). Sharp yen strength or a shrinking gap is the stress tell.

US Treasury curve

FRED public CSV · as of 2026-09-11 · daily

What this shows

Free FRED daily prints — the “earn side” rates for USD carry. 2Y tracks the Fed path; 10Y/20Y/30Y show the long end.

US 2Y Treasury · live

4.63 %

+0.07 pts vs prior

DGS2 · as of 2026-09-11

US 10Y Treasury · live

4.96 %

+0.01 pts vs prior

DGS10 · as of 2026-09-11

US 20Y Treasury · live

5.38 %

-0.01 pts vs prior

DGS20 · as of 2026-09-11

US 30Y Treasury · live

5.35 %

-0.02 pts vs prior

DGS30 · as of 2026-09-11

Japan yield & carry gap

Free FRED · Japan is monthly (lags the daily US curve)

Why Japan lags

Japan’s free official long-rate prints once a month, not every day like US Treasuries — so June can sit next to late-July US yields (source lag, not a stale cache). The derived panel is just US 10Y minus Japan. Wider gap ≈ more room for yen-funded carry; narrower ≈ less.

Japan long-term yield · monthly

2.670 %

Funding-side rate proxy — OECD/FRED long-term, not a same-day JGB 10Y.

IRLTLT01JPM156N · as of 2026-06-01 · monthly · stale

US 10Y − Japan long-term · derived

2.29 pts

Math: US 10Y minus Japan long-term (4.96 − 2.670 = 2.29).

Not a FRED series — computed on this page from DGS10 − IRLTLT01JPM156N · newest leg as of 2026-09-11

On X

Official profiles · open on X (no in-page embed)

Why direct links

Free X timeline embeds rate-limit too often to trust on a notebook page — so these are direct profile links. For desk announcements on-site, use Press releases below.

Press releases

Free official RSS · Fed + BoJ · as of 2026-09-15

What these are

Website announcements (not tweets) — linked so you can open the full release.

Federal Reserve

Bank of Japan